The volatility is a measure of the stability of security and is usually calculated as the standard deviation derived from a continuous composite performance for a certain period of time.
It can also be defined as a statistical measure of the dispersion of certain values and is measured by variance or standard deviation.
When it comes to option pricing, volatility helps show the extent to which an underlying asset will fluctuate between the present and the maturity of the securities. It is usually expressed as a percentage of the coefficient within the security pricing formulas that arises from the trading activities of the day.
In simple terms, it helps to show the range at which the price of an asset can rise or fall. As already mentioned, it is used to indicate the behavior of the prices of an asset and helps to provide estimates on the fluctuations that can occur in a short period of time.
To better understand volatility, think about auto insurance premiums. If you have a bad driving record, your premiums will be higher. Why? Your risk level will have increased. In finance, the consequences of volatility cause the market to rise, fall, rise, and fall.
This affects the index of the markets, causing traders to try to unload their securities at premium prices.
Delving into volatility
One thing to keep in mind is that understanding volatility takes on a deeper meaning and relevance. As one of the main factors that determines the price of a security, it plays an important role in how much a trader will pay to buy a particular option.
In addition, it plays a crucial role in how much a trader will receive for the sale of a given set of shares.
Factors affecting volatility include a product launch, earnings report, regulatory failure, and the sudden resignation of top management – CEO or CFO of a major company.
When it is higher, the value of the security will spread over a wide range of values, which means that its price will change in a short period of time in any direction. If it is on the lower side, the value of the stock will not fluctuate, but the stock will undergo value changes at a constant rate.
How to calculate volatility
To get the correct result, you need historical data for a certain population. It is common for analysts to use historical data for one month. In your datasheet, create columns for the date, the closing price, and the daily change in the percentage of a stock.
The percentage change in your closing price will be calculated by subtracting the previous day’s price from the current price. This will be divided by the price of the previous day and multiplied by 100. Here is the formula:
Percent Daily Change = (Current Price – Yesterday Price) / Yesterday Price * 100
To calculate volatility, obtain the standard deviation of the daily percent change column. If you are using a spreadsheet application, use the following formula:
= STDVA (Cell A: Cell Z)
How to profit from volatility
Traders can benefit from a volatile market when it is higher than when it is lower. If all factors remain the same, a volatile market can be a good incentive for smart investors. Why? Help create opportunities.
Day traders overreact when bad news is given, creating the opportunity that day traders need to make money.
This results in cases where the prices of the securities are lower than the value of an investment. To benefit during this period, an investment strategy must be established that consists of the sale of put options and covered calls. This will result in higher income as well as keeping your portfolio volatility low.
As a trader, one thing to keep in mind is that volatility can be your friend. For this to happen, you have to handle it well at each stage. This means that risk must be minimized at all times.
Paying attention to market valuation and how far you are in a business cycle will help you make wise asset allocation. This will not be based on the time of commercialization but on the analysis of the current market valuation.
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